← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 49% | 52% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.32 | fair |
| Caen win | 21% | 22% | 4.66 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Ronny Rodelin · Caen |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ronny Rodelin · Caen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Nicolas Seube · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days | 2644.00 | 2797.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1710.16 | 1563.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.01 | -19.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.62 |
| league points | 39.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 3.92 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |