← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 59% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.25 | value: +8% |
| Olympique de Marseille win | 18% | 20% | 5.39 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 0 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 148.00 | 270.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1603.11 | 1830.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.05 | 5.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.95 |
| league points | 39.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 90.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 68.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.73 | 2.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.05 |
| state index | 0.68 | 1.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | 1.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |