← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 80% | 82% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 7.55 | fair |
| Metz win | 7% | 5% | 13.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Thibaut Vion · Metz |
| 21' | 🟨 | Fallou Diagne · Metz |
| 41' | 🟨 | Cheick Doukouré · Metz |
| 43' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 53' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 72' | 🟨 | Mouctar Diakhaby · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 74' | ⚽ (og) | Iván Balliu · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 78' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mathieu Valbuena · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| coach days | 453.00 | 453.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1773.00 | 1558.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.26 | 7.39 |
| eye test v1 | 1.78 | -1.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 43.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.62 | -1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.39 | 25.79 |
| state index | 1.43 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |