← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 36% | 32% | 2.73 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 33% | 29% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 39% | 3.13 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Martin Braithwaite · Toulouse FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Steeve Yago · Toulouse FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Benoît Pedretti · Nancy |
| 82' | 🟨 | Joeffrey Cuffaut · Nancy |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alban Lafont · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nancy | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Marcel-Picot |
| coach days | 1243.00 | 361.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1472.55 | 1540.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.02 | 21.91 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| league points | 27.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.82 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |