← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sébastien Desiage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 39% | 37% | 2.54 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.13 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 30% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Valentín Vada · Bordeaux |
| 36' | 🟨 | Julian Palmieri · Lille OSC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Amadou · Lille OSC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Valentín Vada · Bordeaux |
| 66' | 🟨 | Xeka · Lille OSC |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas de Préville · Lille OSC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Éder · Lille OSC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Adam Ounas · Bordeaux |
| 80' | 🟨 | Julian Palmieri · Lille OSC |
| 80' | 🟥 | Julian Palmieri · Lille OSC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Adam Ounas · Bordeaux |
| 89' | 🟨 | Sébastien Corchia · Lille OSC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rio Mavuba · Lille OSC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Rio Mavuba · Lille OSC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Milan Gajić · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 24.00 | 239.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1640.62 | 1669.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.17 | 37.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| league points | 29.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 25.75 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |