← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 52% | 53% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.39 | fair |
| Bastia win | 19% | 22% | 5.21 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Karl Toko Ekambi · Angers SCO |
| 50' | 🟨 | Issa Cissokho · Angers SCO |
| 57' | ⚽ | Karl Toko Ekambi · Angers SCO |
| 74' | 🟥 | Yannick Cahuzac · Bastia |
| 78' | ⚽ | Grégory Bourillon · Angers SCO |
| 80' | 🟨 | Kévin Bérigaud · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 12 |
| 15 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| coach days | 2066.00 | 421.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1574.72 | 1568.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.04 | -14.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 40.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 30.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |