← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Fri, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 48% | 47% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.37 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 23% | 24% | 4.28 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Steve Mounié · Montpellier |
| 49' | 🟨 | Younès Belhanda · OGC Nice |
| 68' | ⚽ | Mickaël Le Bihan · OGC Nice |
| 71' | 🟨 | Dalbert · OGC Nice |
| 85' | 🟨 | Yacouba Sylla · Montpellier |
| 85' | ⚽ | Mickaël Le Bihan · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 299.00 | 54.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1670.26 | 1564.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.68 | 19.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.66 |
| league points | 56.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.15 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.81 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.52 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |