← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Fri, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tony Chapron, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 55% | 58% | 1.77 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.80 | fair |
| Dijon win | 19% | 19% | 5.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Yacine Bammou · Nantes |
| 35' | 🟨 | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 37' | ⚽ (og) | Léo Dubois · Dijon |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jordan Lotiès · Dijon |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 66' | 🟨 | Oswaldo Vizcarrondo · Nantes |
| 76' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 79' | ⚽ | Felipe Pardo · Nantes |
| 81' | 🟨 | Yunis Abdelhamid · Dijon |
| 85' | 🟥 | Loïs Diony · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 85.00 | 1699.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1496.59 | 1482.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.02 | 3.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.69 |
| league points | 30.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |