← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Tue, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 44% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.22 | value: +14% |
| Nancy win | 26% | 22% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Benoît Pedretti · Nancy |
| 24' | ⚽ | Ronny Rodelin · Caen |
| 43' | 🟨 | Diallo Guidileye · Nancy |
| 51' | 🟨 | Faitout Maouassa · Nancy |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jonathan Delaplace · Caen |
| 69' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Nicolas Seube · Caen |
| 78' | 🟨 | Faitout Maouassa · Nancy |
| 78' | 🟥 | Faitout Maouassa · Nancy |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 2792.00 | 1239.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1472.49 | 1481.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.14 | -34.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| league points | 25.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.65 | -0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |