← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 44% | 43% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 27% | 26% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Kévin Monnet-Paquet · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 24' | 🟨 | Stéphane Sessègnon · Montpellier |
| 26' | 🟨 | Jorginho · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 49' | ⚽ | Paul Lasne · Montpellier |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jorginho · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 51' | 🟥 | Jorginho · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 68' | ⚽ | Steve Mounié · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 49.00 | 2637.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1553.13 | 1647.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.49 | 17.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| league points | 29.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |