← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 74% | 77% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 6.14 | fair |
| Dijon win | 10% | 7% | 9.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Corentin Tolisso · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 30' | ⚽ | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 48' | ⚽ | Loïs Diony · Dijon |
| 55' | 🟨 | Florent Balmont · Dijon |
| 57' | 🟨 | Oussama Haddadi · Dijon |
| 66' | 🟨 | Romain Amalfitano · Dijon |
| 70' | 🟨 | Emanuel Mammana · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 80' | ⚽ | Corentin Tolisso · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 83' | 🟨 | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 33 | Shots | 8 |
| 13 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| coach days | 446.00 | 1694.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1681.69 | 1488.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.66 | 10.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 40.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.72 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 22.80 | — |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |