← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 49% | 45% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 23% | 28% | 4.26 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
| 19' | 🟨 | Dorian Lévêque · Guingamp |
| 23' | 🟨 | Valentín Vada · Bordeaux |
| 25' | 🟨 | Jonathan Martins Pereira · Guingamp |
| 26' | 🟨 | Vukašin Jovanović · Bordeaux |
| 43' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pallois · Bordeaux |
| 51' | 🟨 | Mathieu Bodmer · Guingamp |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jonathan Martins Pereira · Guingamp |
| 59' | 🟥 | Jonathan Martins Pereira · Guingamp |
| 71' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Matmut Atlantique |
| coach days | 233.00 | 233.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1576.73 | 1535.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.59 | -20.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| league points | 36.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |