← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tony Chapron, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 38% | 43% | 2.55 | value: +10% |
| FC Lorient win | 33% | 28% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Wylan Cyprien · OGC Nice |
| 29' | 🟨 | Sylvain Marveaux · FC Lorient |
| 43' | 🟨 | Mounir Obbadi · OGC Nice |
| 53' | 🟨 | François Bellugou · FC Lorient |
| 67' | 🟨 | Benjamin Moukandjo · FC Lorient |
| 68' | 🟥 | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 79' | 🟨 | Yoan Cardinale · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir |
| coach days | 109.00 | 293.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1465.75 | 1664.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.54 | 1.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.77 |
| league points | 22.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 2.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | 2.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 1.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |