← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 37% | 37% | 2.63 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 31% | 28% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.13 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Anwar El Ghazi · Lille OSC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Alaeddine Yahia · Caen |
| 63' | 🟥 | Adama Soumaoro · Lille OSC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Anwar El Ghazi · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 2789.00 | 17.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1563.99 | 1630.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.39 | -17.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| league points | 25.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.09 | 25.67 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |