← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 45% | 47% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.14 | fair |
| Nancy win | 23% | 23% | 4.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Jonathan Bamba · Angers SCO |
| 10' | 🟨 | Alou Diarra · Nancy |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| coach days | 2059.00 | 1236.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 0.60 |
| -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1488.93 | 1489.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.23 | -17.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 27.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |