← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 56% | 50% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.64 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 17% | 23% | 5.70 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Loïc Perrin · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 20' | ⚽ | Jordan Veretout · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 58' | ⚽ | Romain Hamouma · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jorginho · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 2630.00 | 103.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1650.25 | 1473.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.67 | 15.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.68 |
| league points | 36.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.70 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |