← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 35% | 26% | 2.81 | fair |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 34% | 44% | 2.91 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 226.00 | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1548.74 | 1665.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.98 | -4.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 66.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| league points | 32.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 2.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |