← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 58% | 54% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.57 | fair |
| Bastia win | 15% | 18% | 6.65 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Nicolas Saint-Ruf · Bastia |
| 38' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · Toulouse FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Bastia |
| 43' | ⚽ | Martin Braithwaite · Toulouse FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Prince Oniangué · Bastia |
| 57' | 🟨 | Yann Bodiger · Toulouse FC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Alexis Blin · Toulouse FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Keita · Bastia |
| 61' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Bastia |
| 61' | 🟥 | Yannick Cahuzac · Bastia |
| 74' | 🟨 | Nicolas Saint-Ruf · Bastia |
| 74' | 🟥 | Nicolas Saint-Ruf · Bastia |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Martin Braithwaite · Toulouse FC |
| 86' | ⚽ | Issa Diop · Toulouse FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Issa Diop · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 347.00 | 407.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1596.11 | 1576.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.67 | -23.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 42.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| league points | 30.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |