← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sébastien Desiage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 38% | 31% | 2.61 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 33% | 36% | 3.00 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.28 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Isaac Mbenza · Montpellier |
| 19' | ⚽ | Steve Mounié · Montpellier |
| 30' | 🟨 | Anthony Robic · Nancy |
| 39' | 🟨 | Tobias Badila · Nancy |
| 56' | 🟨 | Nordi Mukiele · Montpellier |
| 60' | ⚽ | Isaac Mbenza · Montpellier |
| 70' | 🟨 | Lukáš Pokorný · Montpellier |
| 75' | 🟨 | Youssef Aït Bennasser · Nancy |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nancy | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Marcel-Picot |
| coach days | 1229.00 | 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1508.62 | 1533.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.62 | -34.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| league points | 27.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |