← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 44% | 46% | 2.23 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.06 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 24% | 24% | 4.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Pierrick Capelle · Angers SCO |
| 24' | 🟨 | Ismaël Traoré · Angers SCO |
| 27' | ⚽ | Yves Bissouma · Lille OSC |
| 59' | ⚽ | Romain Thomas · Angers SCO |
| 62' | 🟨 | Anwar El Ghazi · Lille OSC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Famara Diédhiou · Angers SCO |
| 83' | 🟥 | Yves Bissouma · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 10.00 | 2052.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1644.97 | 1551.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.09 | -10.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 26.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 27.32 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |