← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 45% | 48% | 2.17 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.51 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 27% | 32% | 3.66 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 11 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 225.00 | 438.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1601.46 | 1752.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -50.62 | -23.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.75 |
| league points | 31.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 65.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.84 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |