← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 43% | 36% | 2.28 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.26 | fair |
| Caen win | 27% | 35% | 3.64 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Mehdi Abeid · Dijon |
| 46' | 🟨 | Jordan Marié · Dijon |
| 86' | ⚽ | Loïs Diony · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 1686.00 | 2782.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1581.98 | 1576.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.29 | 0.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| league points | 24.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |