← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Wed, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sébastien Desiage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 38% | 42% | 2.57 | value: +7% |
| Dijon win | 33% | 28% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Jordan Lotiès · Dijon |
| 43' | 🟨 | Chris Philipps · Metz |
| 46' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr · Metz |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jordan Lotiès · Dijon |
| 60' | 🟥 | Jordan Lotiès · Dijon |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Cheick Diabaté · Metz |
| 67' | 🟨 | Florent Balmont · Dijon |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jordan Marié · Dijon |
| 78' | ⚽ | Cédric Varrault · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days | 435.00 | 1683.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1416.12 | 1485.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.95 | 28.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 26.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |