← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Wed, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 59% | 57% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.13 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 17% | 23% | 5.77 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Bafétimbi Gomis · Olympique de Marseille |
| 38' | 🟨 | Marcus Coco · Guingamp |
| 42' | 🟨 | Bafétimbi Gomis · Olympique de Marseille |
| 76' | ⚽ | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
| 77' | 🟨 | Rolando · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 130.00 | 222.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1594.08 | 1533.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.82 | -44.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| league points | 33.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |