← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Tue, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 79% | 80% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.55 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 6% | 6% | 17.50 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 251.00 | 6.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1902.89 | 1647.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.48 | -2.60 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | — |
| league points | 49.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.24 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.37 | 24.86 |
| state index | 1.73 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.25 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |