← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Tue, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 36% | 34% | 2.69 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 33% | 43% | 2.93 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 30% | 23% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Youssouf Sabaly · Bordeaux |
| 11' | ⚽ | Diego Rolán · Bordeaux |
| 22' | ⚽ | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jordan Adeoti · Caen |
| 63' | ⚽ | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jaroslav Plašil · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 4 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 2778.00 | 221.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1595.42 | 1646.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.64 | 24.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.40 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.83 |
| league points | 25.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |