← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 45% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 24% | 30% | 4.11 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Issa Cissokho · Angers SCO |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pépé · Angers SCO |
| 47' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · Toulouse FC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Mehdi Tahrat · Angers SCO |
| 55' | 🟨 | — · Angers SCO |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Martin Braithwaite · Toulouse FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Yann Bodiger · Toulouse FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Óscar Trejo · Toulouse FC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Ola Toivonen · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 341.00 | 2046.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1503.27 | 1489.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -55.89 | -24.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 26.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.87 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |