← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tony Chapron, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 46% | 46% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.56 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 27% | 30% | 3.67 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |