← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 48% | 46% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.16 | fair |
| Nancy win | 21% | 27% | 4.74 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | ⚽ | Issiar Dia · Nancy |
| 52' | 🟨 | Alou Diarra · Nancy |
| 64' | ⚽ | Julien Cétout · Nancy |
| 66' | 🟨 | Felipe Pardo · Nantes |
| 72' | 🟨 | Léo Dubois · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟥 | Amine Harit · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟥 | Vincent Muratori · Nancy |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 66.00 | 1223.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1503.04 | 1499.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.60 | 15.17 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| league points | 26.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |