← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 51% | 56% | 1.91 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.59 | fair |
| Bastia win | 21% | 21% | 4.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Steve Mounié · Montpellier |
| 19' | 🟨 | Ellyes Skhiri · Montpellier |
| 31' | 🟨 | Prince Oniangué · Bastia |
| 34' | ⚽ | Enzo Crivelli · Bastia |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jérôme Roussillon · Montpellier |
| 38' | 🟨 | Lindsay Rose · Bastia |
| 64' | ⚽ | Steve Mounié · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathieu Deplagne · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟥 | Alexander Djiku · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 34.00 | 400.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1531.79 | 1510.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.18 | -4.40 |
| eye test v1 | 1.05 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 40.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| league points | 23.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | -1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |