← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 53% | 54% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.67 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 20% | 21% | 4.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Alhassan Wakaso · FC Lorient |
| 49' | ⚽ | Jérémie Aliadière · FC Lorient |
| 65' | 🟨 | Franck Béria · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 3.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1586.71 | 1458.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.81 | 11.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| league points | 26.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |