← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 47% | 48% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.42 | fair |
| Caen win | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Moustapha Diallo · Guingamp |
| 69' | 🟨 | Vincent Bessat · Caen |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alaeddine Yahia · Caen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Yann Karamoh · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days | 218.00 | 2775.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1624.23 | 1582.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.53 | 17.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 68.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| league points | 31.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |