← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 71% | 68% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.29 | value: +5% |
| Dijon win | 10% | 12% | 9.80 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 21 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 1679.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1490.46 | 1821.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.79 | -5.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | 1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.93 |
| league points | 24.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 2.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.80 |
| state index | 0.12 | 1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |