← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 41% | 44% | 2.39 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 32% | 26% | 3.03 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 27% | 30% | 3.67 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Alban Lafont · Toulouse FC |
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Nolan Roux · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 12' | 🟨 | Jordan Veretout · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 26' | 🟨 | Kévin Malcuit · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 47' | 🟥 | Somalia · Toulouse FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nolan Roux · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 55' | ⚽ | Kévin Monnet-Paquet · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 57' | 🟨 | Kévin Théophile-Catherine · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 60' | 🟨 | Martin Braithwaite · Toulouse FC |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Nolan Roux · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 334.00 | 2616.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1595.89 | 1705.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.67 | -6.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 26.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |