← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 48% | 48% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.36 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 23% | 27% | 4.35 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 14' | 🟨 | Dalbert · OGC Nice |
| 20' | 🟨 | Fernando Marçal · Guingamp |
| 23' | 🟨 | Vincent Koziello · OGC Nice |
| 38' | ⚽ | Jean Michaël Seri · OGC Nice |
| 63' | ⚽ | Jimmy Briand · Guingamp |
| 74' | 🟨 | Malang Sarr · OGC Nice |
| 84' | 🟨 | Alexandre Mendy · Guingamp |
| 87' | ⚽ | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jimmy Briand · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 273.00 | 212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1659.59 | 1554.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.85 | -14.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.70 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 46.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.91 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.47 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |