← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient win | 49% | 38% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 35% | 3.80 | value: +33% |
| Dijon win | 25% | 27% | 3.94 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Loïs Diony · Dijon |
| 29' | 🟨 | Mathieu Peybernes · FC Lorient |
| 50' | ⚽ | Sylvain Marveaux · FC Lorient |
| 56' | 🟨 | Vincent Ruefli · Dijon |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ádám Lang · Dijon |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Majeed Waris · FC Lorient |
| 62' | 🟨 | Florent Balmont · Dijon |
| 69' | 🟨 | Wesley Lautoa · FC Lorient |
| 70' | ⚽ | Jordan Lotiès · Dijon |
| 72' | 🟨 | Walid Mesloub · FC Lorient |
| 86' | 🟨 | Steven Moreira · FC Lorient |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pierre Lees Melou · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir |
| coach days | 88.00 | 1672.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1470.37 | 1478.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.07 | 10.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| league points | 18.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.04 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |