← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 41% | 42% | 2.41 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.15 | fair |
| Caen win | 28% | 29% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Allan Saint-Maximin · Bastia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mehdi Mostefa · Bastia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Damien Da Silva · Caen |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Ronny Rodelin · Caen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lindsay Rose · Bastia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Adeoti · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Armand Cesari |
| coach days | 393.00 | 2768.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1585.63 | 1580.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.48 | 13.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 38.80 | 71.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.27 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.66 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |