← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 49% | 49% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.31 | fair |
| Metz win | 21% | 21% | 4.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Flavien Tait · Angers SCO |
| 33' | ⚽ (og) | Ismaël Traoré · Metz |
| 35' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Angers SCO |
| 36' | 🟨 | Renaud Cohade · Metz |
| 39' | 🟥 | Renaud Cohade · Metz |
| 66' | 🟥 | Fallou Diagne · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 3 |
| 10 | On target | 0 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| coach days | 2038.00 | 424.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1557.69 | 1551.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.60 | 0.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| league points | 20.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.91 | 26.06 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |