← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Fri, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tony Chapron, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 58% | 59% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.09 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 18% | 18% | 5.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 19 |
| 9 | On target | 9 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 118.00 | 26.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1595.06 | 1544.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.43 | -28.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 30.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |