← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 52% | 53% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.34 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 19% | 19% | 5.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
| 23' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Bamba · Angers SCO |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jordan Veretout · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pierrick Capelle · Angers SCO |
| 51' | ⚽ (og) | Abdoulaye Bamba · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 52' | 🟨 | Ismaël Traoré · Angers SCO |
| 67' | 🟨 | Pierre-Yves Polomat · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 74' | ⚽ | Loïc Perrin · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.37 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 2609.00 | 2032.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1700.29 | 1562.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.83 | -41.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 27.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |