← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 39% | 42% | 2.52 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.15 | fair |
| Dijon win | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Yassine Benzia · Lille OSC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Ádám Lang · Dijon |
| 47' | 🟨 | Jordan Lotiès · Dijon |
| 57' | 🟨 | Franck Béria · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 1665.00 | 447.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1586.65 | 1647.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.37 | 6.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| league points | 20.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 29.18 | 26.55 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |