← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Fri, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 39% | 37% | 2.53 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.11 | value: +7% |
| Bastia win | 30% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Prince Oniangué · Bastia |
| 33' | ⚽ | Arnaud Souquet · OGC Nice |
| 56' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Bastia |
| 64' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Bastia |
| 64' | 🟥 | Yannick Cahuzac · Bastia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mehdi Mostefa · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Armand Cesari |
| coach days | 385.00 | 264.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1583.00 | 1736.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.31 | 5.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 37.40 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 20.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | 1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.20 | 0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |