← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 64% | 74% | 1.53 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 24% | 18% | 4.10 | fair |
| Metz win | 12% | 8% | 8.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Malang Sarr · OGC Nice |
| 73' | 🟨 | Fallou Diagne · Metz |
| 75' | 🟨 | Vincent Koziello · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 259.00 | 411.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1669.82 | 1381.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.69 | -26.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.10 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | — |
| league points | 44.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 25.00 | 25.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.32 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.50 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.83 | -1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.09 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |