← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 56% | 55% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.22 | value: +7% |
| Caen win | 21% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 8' | ⚽ (og) | Maxwel Cornet · Caen |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 38' | 🟨 | Mouctar Diakhaby · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 48' | 🟨 | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 61' | ⚽ | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 84' | 🟨 | Hervé Bazile · Caen |
| 87' | 🟨 | Maciej Rybus · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 26 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 2755.00 | 411.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1494.26 | 1700.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.41 | 39.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.10 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 18.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 25.00 | 25.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | 1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.49 |
| state index | 0.00 | 1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |