← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 44% | 51% | 2.25 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 32% | 26% | 3.06 | fair |
| Nantes win | 24% | 22% | 4.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 25' | 🟨 | Issiaga Sylla · Toulouse FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Touré · Nantes |
| 68' | 🟨 | Yacine Bammou · Nantes |
| 81' | 🟨 | Koffi Djidji · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 319.00 | 44.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1539.16 | 1483.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.83 | 9.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | — |
| league points | 26.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |