← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 48% | 41% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 41% | 3.19 | value: +32% |
| Bastia win | 22% | 18% | 4.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Diallo Guidileye · Nancy |
| 29' | 🟨 | Alou Diarra · Nancy |
| 59' | ⚽ | Issiar Dia · Nancy |
| 86' | 🟥 | Allan Saint-Maximin · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nancy | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Marcel-Picot |
| coach days | 1201.00 | 379.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1506.93 | 1518.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.65 | 5.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 41.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| league points | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -1.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |