← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 54% | 53% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.72 | fair |
| Dijon win | 20% | 20% | 5.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 87' | ⚽ | Jérôme Roussillon · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 14 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| coach days | 13.00 | 1658.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 3.60 |
| -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1568.80 | 1473.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.01 | 12.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.00 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 22.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |