← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Wed, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 38% | 37% | 2.61 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 31% | 31% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Lima · Nantes |
| 54' | 🟨 | Koffi Djidji · Nantes |
| 88' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 20.00 | 2730.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 1.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1472.44 | 1580.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.42 | 23.63 |
| eye test v1 | -1.04 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 68.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| league points | 16.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |