← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Wed, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 69% | 68% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.09 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 12% | 14% | 8.39 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 34' | 🟨 | Famara Diédhiou · Angers SCO |
| 77' | 🟨 | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
| 84' | ⚽ | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.35 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 386.00 | 2000.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1694.67 | 1493.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.29 | -50.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| league points | 31.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.22 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.49 | — |
| state index | 1.12 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |