← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Wed, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 42% | 42% | 2.36 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.27 | value: +12% |
| Toulouse FC win | 28% | 24% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Vincent Ruefli · Dijon |
| 49' | 🟨 | Steeve Yago · Toulouse FC |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 52' | ⚽ | Pierre Lees Melou · Dijon |
| 57' | 🟨 | Johan Gastien · Dijon |
| 60' | 🟨 | Christopher Jullien · Toulouse FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro · Toulouse FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Somalia · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 1634.00 | 295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 1.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1457.14 | 1555.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.46 | -8.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 16.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.69 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |